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Exclusive: Covid Vaccines Failed to Lower America’s Excess Mortality Rates in 2021

    Ever since the “warp speed” roll out of Covid vaccines in December 2020, Americans have constantly heard the refrain they were “safe and effective.” However, there is accumulating evidence that they are “neither safe, nor effective” in the aggregate.

    One of the most direct metrics for evaluating the effectiveness of vaccines for combating the Covid virus, as well as variants such as Delta and Omicron, is the excess mortality rate. While there were mask mandates and lockdowns in 2020, vaccines were introduced on January 4, 2021. Thus, it is the one major new tool for fighting Covid that was introduced in 2021. It thus provides an excellent proxy variable for assessing effects on excess mortality.

    The Centers for Disease Control explains the value of excess mortality rates when evaluating all-cause mortality. This is relevant because we want to take a holistic approach to the effects of Covid responses, such as vaccination rates, as well as lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and mask mandates.

    “Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.”

    All-cause mortality is a more holistic snapshot than focusing merely on Covid excess mortality. This is because it helps us assess if people are dying from the impact of Covid response policies, such as increased suicide rates, missing vital health screenings, and other public health tradeoffs.

    What we find from an examination of the evidence provided by the CDC itself is that the vaccines are not lowering excess mortality rates; particularly, the average percentages of excess mortality in each reporting period year-over-year.

    The CDC’s website shows the excess mortality from 2018 to present (but the expected mean is based on 6 years of data, the CDC notes). The excess mortality for each weekly reporting period can be seen below.

    As you can see, from January 2021 to present, there was a peak at around the time of President Biden’s inauguration on January 20, followed by a decline in the weekly excess mortality figures, then a second wave that came with a Delta variant spike.

    While there is no option available to directly compare the year-over-year weekly rates as a percentage, you can download the raw data and sort the weekly reports to find these figures.

    The average weekly excess mortality rate, expressed as a percentage in 2020: 15.65% above the mean. In 2021, that figure has been 16.31% above the mean.

    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also provides the aggregate excess mortality rates. The OECD shows that the United States had Excess Deaths (% Change from Average) as -0.3% in 2020. It is 44.1% thus far in 2021.

    Interestingly, one can find the excess mortality rates for other countries, provided by the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Let’s sample a few nations by year for Excess Deaths (% Change from Average):

    • Australia: 0.5% (2020). 4.6% (2021)
    • Austria: -10.8% (2020). 8.4% (2021)
    • Iceland: 24.5% (2020). -1.7 (2021).
    • Germany: -1.8% (2020). 29.2 (2021).
    • Canada: 2% (2020). 9.9% (2021).

    Let’s put under the microscope nations that are renowned for opposing mandatory mask policies:

    • Sweden: -7.8% (2020). 16.7% (2021).
    • Denmark: -0.4% (2020). 10%. (2021).
    • Norway: -6.8% (2020). -10.3% (2021).

    There is a possibility that 2021 ends up as worse than 2020 in terms of all-cause excess mortality rates for many nations, regardless of the vaccines.

    It further contextualizes this data to read new reports out of the United Kingdom, which is more reliable and transparent with their data than the United States, that ‘the UK Government’s own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety.’ This conclusion was reached by Norman Fenton of the University of London.

    “In a previous post we argued that the most reliable long-term measure of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness/safety is the age adjusted all-cause mortality rate,” Fenton writes. “If, over a reasonably prolonged period, fewer vaccinated people die, from whatever cause, including Covid-19, than unvaccinated people then we could conclude that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks. We also pointed out that, to avoid the confounding effect of age, it is critical that data for each age category is available, rather than the aggregated data because, clearly, aggregated data might exaggerate vaccine mortality rates if more older people, with shorter expected mortality, are included.”

    “The latest Office for National Statistics report on mortality rates by Covid vaccination status provides data on all deaths – Covid related and non-Covid related for the period Jan-July 2021 for the unvaccinated and the different categories of vaccinated (‘within 21 days of first dose’, ’21 days or more after first dose’, ‘second dose’),” he notes before providing his analysis.

    “It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated,” Fenton concludes.

    “The age adjusted mortality rates for vaccinated against unvaccinated for weeks 1 to 26 of 2021 are charted below. Overall, the chart shows that, over time, the weighted mortality rate for the vaccinated has steadily increased and by week 16 (23 April 2021), surpassed that for the unvaccinated,” Fenton remarks.

    Fenton also refers to the data to show that there are appreciable differences in all-cause mortality rates when sorted by vaccination status.

    “As the ONS data breaks down the data over time for the three categories of vaccinated (those within 21 days of first dose, those 21 days after first dose, and those after two doses), we can also plot mortality charts for each of these categories,” Fenton notes. “The mortality rate, for week 26, up to 2 July, for the unvaccinated is around 25 deaths per 100,000.”

    “But there are big differences between the mortality rates for the different categories of vaccinated deaths,” he adds. “For example, for those after 21 days of first dose, the comparable mortality is around 89 deaths per 100,000 people (a number which has drastically increased since January), while for those vaccinated with two doses there were approximately 15 deaths per 100,000 in the same July period.”

    Matthew Crawford, a statistician who has analyzed the numbers, concludes that “Modeling the UK Data Shows No All-Cause Mortality Benefit for Covid-19 Vaccines”:

    “Are the vaccinated dying at two-to-three times the rate of the unvaccinated in the UK as Alex Berenson’s recent article suggests?” Crawford asks.

    “Let’s be clear: Alex Berenson has done an excellent and courageous job during the pandemic. I follow his work and recommend that you do as well. He definitely digs into data better than most journalists, though we should not expect for him to do everything and be everything. He doesn’t have to be perfect and you don’t have to agree with every take to understand how important his work isI am writing this before I analyze the data. However, I will note that my first instinct is to think that the [twice] Vaccinated cohort has an older age profile than the Unvaccinated cohort. Thus, we should expect to see greater all cause mortality in that group. This means what we are seeing is an illusion of data aggregation often called a Simpson’s paradox, something I’ve written about several times before (here and here),” Crawford remarks. Then, the statistician digs into the U.K. numbers.

    “Alex [Berenson] was wrong to suggest that the data showed prima facie higher mortality in the Vaccinated cohort due to the vaccines,” Crawford remarks. “However, this result is quite interesting! It’s hard to look at these graphs and easily determine which cohort has suffered more excess mortality during the middle months of 2021! So, I took the excess mortality from each cohort for each week, and also cumulatively, and plotted them”:

    “The cumulative trends go back-and-forth, and it seems reasonable to dismiss any difference as statistical noise. But when we do compute the tiny overall observed benefit at the end of the 28 week stretch to the vaccinated group, it amounts to a mere 5 deaths per million doses (at over $6 million per life saved),” Crawford concludes.

    Let’s be clear: This is not an ‘anti-vaccine’ article. I have taken the Covid shots and have made out fine. Millions may not have had that experience. But the one-size-fits-all approach to universal vaccination is flawed because it ignores the wide variety in risks for different age and health profiles, as well as natural immunity. The CDC estimates that between 146.6 million and 190 million people had ‘prior infections’ and survived, thus possessing natural immunity.

    The new guidance that Americans should get “boosters” when they have completed the initial series of Covid shots to be “fully vaccinated” earlier this year is a tacit admission of failure. The announcement that vaccine companies are contemplating a “relaunch” due to the Omicron variant is likewise an admission of failure. Vaccines may have saved thousands of at-risk people’s lives, but the damage the experts’ Covid policies have done to the nation as a whole has been catastrophic.

    Furthermore, the prophylactic therapeutics being marketed as “vaccines” do not stop the spread. Therefore the rationale behind issuing vaccine mandates as a matter of “public health” policy is a dubious one at best. Ethically, the decision whether or not to take any drug should be between a patient and doctor.

    The totality of the experts’ supposed Covid response policies have been an abject failure. The data back up this assessment.


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    OPINION: This article contains commentary which reflects the author's opinion.