CNN’s election team is predicting a huge ‘red wave’ in the 2022 midterms unlike any other. Watch:
“If you’re a Republican running for re-election or trying to unseat the Democrat, things are looking pretty good, right?” Jake Tapper asked CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten.
“I would say they’re looking very good from a historical context,” Enten said. “So, basically, I took the best Republican positions on the generic congressional ballot at this point in midterm cycles since 1938. That generic ballot, basically, as would you vote for the generic Republican or generic Democrat in your district. And guess what? Since 1938, the Republican two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is the best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years.”
“It beats 2010 when Republicans were up a point,” he went on. “It beats 14, 2000, 1998, where Democrats led by point.”
“And in all of those four prior examples that make this list of the top five, look at that, who won a majority? It was the Republicans who won a majority,” he added. “Now, of course, the election is not being held tomorrow and we’ll see sometimes history isn’t always prologue. But my estimate for the 2023 House makeup if the election were held today, which again, it isn’t, we still have five months, five months from tomorrow —would be Republicans 236 seats to 241 seats, Democrats 194 to 199. That’s based off of a formula of seat-to-seat race ratings from both the Cook Political Report and inside elections.”
“That is a stomping or that would be a stomping, I guess,” Tapper remarked.
“Yes, it would,” Enten answered.
“We’ll see if it happens,” Tapper said. “A lot of the Democrats problems, it seems, can be linked back to the President, right, who is severely underwater?”
“Yes,” Enten went on. “You know, midterm penalty, it’s about where the President is. And essentially, OK, look at the President’s approval rating at this point since World War II, in midterms in which his party gains or loses less than five House seats, which is essentially what Democrats need to maintain control. And 1962, the President’s approval rating, J.F.K., was 71 percent. Bill Clinton in 1998, it was 63 percent. In 2002 cycle, 72 percent for George W. Bush. Joe Biden’s is just 41 percent.”
“Why is his approval rating so low? Well, I think this slide will give you the answer,” he added. “This is the net approval rating on the economy at this point in a presidency. Joe Biden’s minus 26 points, that is the… the lowest for any president in the last 40 plus years.”
The really bad news for CNN watchers is that that +2 Republican ballot is being very generous — although it is useful to compare apples-to-apples, even with biased polling. Rasmussen has the generic ballot at Republicans +8, Emerson has the GOP at +3 and Quinnipiac has them at +4. The Politico/Morning Consult poll is weighing down the average to +2 at the Real Clear Politics average with a comically unrealistic +4 Democrats advantage.