Covid death rates should be decreasing in the United States.
Except the picture we are now getting from all the lockdowns, the mask mandates, the vaccine mandates, the ‘passports,’ the social distancing, the contact tracing, the mobile alerts, the 24/7 messages being blasted into our faces, is all of this failed to stop the spread. Not only that, these authoritarian and often unlawful policies failed to reduce the Covid death rates and the all-cause excess mortality rates. It’s enough to put a CDC Director on the hot seat as the next potential ‘fall guy’ in the Covid charade.
Let’s dissect what is going on in America right now with the last gasps of the Covid pandemic. The Omicron variant, now reported to be 95% of all Covid cases in the United States, is demonstrably far less deadly than earlier variants. It may even be comparable to the seasonal flu.
We should consider vaccination rates by age demographic: 95% of Americans over the age of 65 have been given at least one mRNA prophylactic therapeutic shot, while the same can be said of over 90% of people over age 50.
The death rates should have gone way down.
Except they didn’t. In fact, there were more reported Covid-related deaths in 2021 than in 2020.
Now, add in that there have been more than 200 million people who have had prior infections, and therefore, some form of “natural immunity.”
Then, how is it possible that between vaccinated immunity, natural immunity, and less lethal Covid variants, that Covid-related deaths remain elevated?
It doesn’t make any sense.
One explanation is that nearly all of excess mortality in the United States appears to be attributed one way or another to Covid. Here is a chart of all-cause mortality excess deaths.
Now, here is a chart of Covid-related excess mortality.
If you think these charts look pretty much identical, that’s because they are. Let’s unpack what is involved with Covid-related excess mortality.
The CDC admits up front that they calculate their Covid-19 deaths based on a model derived from unexplained all-cause mortality rates.
“COVID-19 deaths are estimated using a statistical model to calculate the number of COVID-19 deaths that were unrecognized and those that were not recorded on death certificates and, as a result, were never reported as a death related to COVID-19,” the CDC says.
“To estimate these unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, all-cause deaths are obtained from the National Center of Health Statistics,” the CDC continues. “Before applying the statistical model, reported COVID-19 deaths are subtracted by age, state, and week from all-cause deaths, so that these reported COVID-19 deaths are not included in the calculation of the expected deaths for the statistical model.”
“Then, to understand how many deaths may have not been recognized as being related to COVID-19, CDC uses a statistical model to estimate the number of expected deaths from all causes assuming that there was no circulation of COVID-19 (that is, those deaths expected in the absence of any COVID-19 illnesses). Researchers then use the model to predict the number of all-cause deaths that would have occurred taking into account information on COVID-19 circulation,.[sic].”
“To obtain the number of unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, the number of expected all-cause deaths (without COVID-19 circulation) are subtracted from the number of predicted all-cause deaths (with COVID-19 circulation). The model is used to calculate estimates by state and age (for six age groups: 0-17, 18-49, 50-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years),” the CDC adds.
“Once investigators estimate unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, they add documented COVID-19 deaths to the unrecognized deaths to obtain an estimate of the total number of COVID-19-attributable deaths,” the CDC says.
Wow. So, the CDC might be burying the potential harm of Covid-response policies under a rubric that puts undetermined all-cause excess mortality in the category of Covid-related excess mortality? Seems legit and nothing at all like statistical fraud.
The CDC explains why it uses such a methodology, which it feels compelled to point out has been “peer reviewed” by The Lancet.
“Because current surveillance systems do not capture all cases or deaths of COVID-19 occurring in the United States, CDC provides these estimates to better reflect the larger burden of COVID-19. CDC uses these types of estimates to inform policy decisions and public messages.”
Fantastic. So, “health policy” and “messaging” are guides for the statistical analysis. Well, at least the CDC admits it.
It has always drawn suspicion about the Covid-related mortality reporting that there is a tremendous amount of overlap between Covid-related deaths and serious underlying health conditions.
Indeed, 95% of all Covid-related deaths have at least one ‘comorbidity,’ and the average number of Covid-related comorbidities is 4.0.
It seems therefore that a serious underlying health condition would exponentially increase one’s risk of dying from Covid-19. Furthermore, it was determined in 2020 that the average age of mortality for Covid-19 related deaths (77 years old) was about that of life expectancy (78 years old). That raises some red flags about how these deaths seem to be getting coded.
This is how one article explained how Covid-related deaths are determined. It goes into specifics of the process, but we will simply note that it is a complicated matter to determine cause of death. It often requires a medical examiner, if not an autopsy on complicated cases. A positive test determined just prior to or after death is not sufficient to be considered the “cause” of that person’s death. It may be the proximal cause or the aggravating factor, but it is not necessarily the “cause” of death.
Why? Because underlying health factors and demographic information, such as age, weigh greatly in the calculation of someone’s risk of actually dying from Covid-19. If one is obese, one has a much higher chance of hospitalization or death. If one is elderly, one has a much higher chance of hospitalization or death. If one is immunocompromised, one has a much higher chance of hospitalization or death. And so on.
A highly accomplished surgeon and lawyer named Joel Zinberg explained the process of determined cause of death in a helpful manner back in July 2020.
“The task has not gotten any easier during the Covid-19 pandemic,” Zinberg writes. “People are still dying of heart disease, stroke, cancer, and accidents. But now there is a new respiratory illness to account for.”
“Not every decedent who tested positive for the virus that causes Covid-19 died from it—in fact, the disease is mild for most people,” he adds. “Conversely, some deaths due to Covid-19 may be erroneously assigned to other causes of death because the people were never tested, and Covid-19 was not diagnosed. Nearly everyone dying of Covid-19 has concurrent health problems—the average decedent has 2.5 co-morbid conditions—and hypertension, heart disease, respiratory diseases, and diabetes are among the most common. The presence and interaction of these co-morbid conditions is what sometimes changes Covid-19 from a relatively benign disease into a killer. But co-morbidities can also cause death regardless of Covid-19.”
“Only part of the discrepancy between excess deaths and official Covid deaths results from undercounting of Covid deaths,” he continues. “In New York City, when excess deaths between March 11 (the first recorded Covid-19 death) and May 2 were examined, only 57 percent had laboratory-confirmed Covid-19. Yet when probable deaths—deaths for which Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2, or an equivalent term was listed on the death certificate as an immediate, underlying, or contributing cause of death, but that did not have laboratory confirmation of Covid-19—were added in, 22 percent of excess deaths were still not attributed to Covid-19.”
“The indirect effect of the pandemic—deaths caused by the social and economic responses to the pandemic, including lockdowns—appears to explain the balance,” he adds. “For instance, people delayed needed medical care because they were instructed to shelter in place, were too scared to go to the doctor, or were unable to obtain care because of limitations on available care, including a moratorium on elective procedures.”
The point is: What if much of ‘Covid-related mortality’ is a reflection of this imprecise process of determining the cause of deaths among people who are at high risk of dying regardless?
Yet, as we see with the CDC’s excess mortality modeling, nearly all of the deaths are attributed directly to Covid-19. Not to the surge in drug overdoses. Not to increasing suicides. Surely, not due to the “adverse effects” of pharmaceuticals.
There are further questions clouding a picture of the data. Such as, where did the seasonal flu go in 2020? Where was it in 2021?
Are we to believe that there was virtually no seasonal flu in 2020 and very little in 2021? Are we to trust the same tests that the CDC and FDA are phasing out? The tests that even the NY Times remarked were susceptible to ‘false positives’ due to incorrect Ct settings?
Furthermore, we recently had several confessions that the hospitalization data is suspect and not to be trusted on face value.
“If a child goes into the hospital, they automatically get tested for COVID and they get counted as a COVID-hospitalized individual, when, in fact, they may go in for a broken leg or appendicitis or something like that,” Dr. Anthony Fauci recently told MSNBC. “So it’s over counting the number of children who are, quote, hospitalized with COVID as opposed to because of COVID.”
The New York Post reported: “New statistics show that more than 40 percent of the state’s hospitalized coronavirus-infected patients were admitted for ‘non-COVID reasons’ — with the ratio in New York City ‘about 50-50,’ Gov. Kathy Hochul said Friday.”
“CDC is reporting increasing pediatric COVID hospitalizations, but critical to break numbers down,” Dr. Jeanne Noble, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, wrote on Twitter. “Between our 2 pediatric hospitals in SF and Oakland, 30% of COVID+ hospitalizations are for COVID illness, and 70% are incidental. 6 kids hospitalized b/c of COVID today at UCSF.”
The question is: What if we are getting the Covid-related mortality data wrong the way that the child hospitalization reporting has been misreported?
The alternative explanation is not as good as Covid policy defenders might think. Because if their data is not wrong, then it means their policies sure as hell aren’t working.
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OPINION: This article contains commentary which reflects the author's opinion.